Author: Whitney Afonso (page 1 of 2)

Crowdsourcing for Local Governments: Research Review

Research Review is a place for me to bring you academic research that I think might be of interest or relevant to you all.  It is not necessarily the Cliff notes of the paper, but it will present some key findings or insights from the paper.

In this installment of Research Review I am going to talk to you about crowdsourcing government services via the paper “A Framework for Using Crowdsourcing in Government” (Clark, Zingale, Logan, and Brudney 2016).

So first things first, what is crowdsourcing?  The authors define it as: “Crowdsourcing is a general term used to describe a variety of ways that organizations, particularly in the for-profit sector, take advantage of the thoughts, inputs and ideas of the public” (pg 57). These days that usually means through the internet and/or phone.

The authors characterize crowdsourcing as being less organized and focused than typical workgroups and that they tend to be used for gathering lower level ideas and suggestions—not to say that they are not important, just not necessarily “big picture.”  Of course the crowd matters too. There are times it makes sense to involve everyone, there are times that it does not.  One advantage is that there can be some internal policing and vetting of ideas amongst the participants which can help eliminate biases.  Biases that professional and technical training may inadvertently create or those that may be driven by experiences or status.   While this policing may happen naturally, effective crowdsourcing will also require an administrator (or moderator) of the platform and information.  This administrator will need to understand the issue at hand, have some technical expertise, and what sort of information and input is desired from the crowdsourcing endeavor.

One of the success stories of crowdsourcing is through 311.  There have been some great examples of where online platforms or even webapps have allowed citizens to report problems like potholes or dead trees in the street.  For example, “New York City residents can now take advantage of an innovative Internet platform that combines the instant effects of crowdsourcing with a hobby that many residents like to do – complaining” (full article).

Am I the only who is thinking of Pokémon Go for local governments?  Find three potholes and earn the road warrior badge!  Ride the public bus five times and earn a pine tree hugger badge, ride it 25 times and you can evolve it into a redwood hugger badge!  This is what people like my husband (i.e., nerds) would call gamification and it is pretty popular right now too!

 

But I digress.  These 311 apps have been a great way for helping local governments monitor outages, the need for repairs, and  other problems.  While someone on the government side still needs to sift through all the reports and data and then have a crew go address the problem, it has been successful at identifying needs.

Crowdsourcing is beginning to be implemented by local governments, but there is still room to do more.  The question is how and when and WHAT.  That is where this paper is helpful.  It presents a basic framework to begin to think about these issues.

They develop a framework based on the type of problem, then translating it into what sort of process and feedback you might want to solicit, and then some of the issues with that process.  Once that is laid out, they go into brief case studies to illustrate the points.

This first figure is how they present their initial framework.  It allows for you to identify whether you have a complex or simple problem and the level of expertise you need and the diversity of thought you want.

They further flesh it out through this typology.  You can see under the column labeled “Our Analytical Framework” how this second figure corresponds to the first.  What is SO helpful about this second figure is that it gives a quick and dirty guide to ways in which an organization can crowdsource and some of the issues you should consider.

This all sounds great right?  Well it can be, but the paper highlights numerous issues.  I will highlight one here, transaction costs.  “Transactions costs, in the economic tradition, are the costs of finding partners, negotiating with them, and enforcing the contract you have agreed to. Each interaction between citizen and government incurs a cost on either or both parties. The higher the transaction cost is, the more difficult it will be for citizens and government to collaborate. In government crowdsourcing all three types of transaction costs are present: search and information costs (finding partners/collaborators/information), bargaining costs (negotiating the relationship), and policing and enforcement costs (assuring the contract is carried according to the negotiations)” (page 59).  These costs may not always be obvious and the first that are considered when government begins the process of exploring crowdsourcing—but they are critical.

What are the primary takeaways? They conclude with three themes they believe will help government understand and implement effective crowdsourcing.

  1. Lower the transaction costs. Yup, back to this one. They specifically identify lowering the costs to participants (though government matters too).  One way to do this is to take more complex problems and make them into smaller more discrete pieces.  Let citizens easily navigate themselves to the problems where they want to help and feel like they can help.
  2. Make sure you say thank you to participants. You need to acknowledge their contributions with a thank you and some visible evidence that their feedback is being used. So if you are playing Pokémon Go and they find potholes, then let them know when they have been filled and thank them for their assistance! 
  3. Recognize and emphasize that crowdsourcing does not replace what government has been doing, it adds to it.  You still need your experts and there are places where that expertise trumps all outside input.  That does not mean encouraging skepticism, the authors point to evidence that the wisdom of the crowds can be high quality and useful to government.

Thoughts?  Have you all tried any crowdsourcing?  How did it go?  What problems did you encounter?  What successes did you have?  Please comment and share.  Let’s crowdsource this conversation!

 

 

 

Benjamin Y. Clark, Nicholas Zingale, Joseph Logan, & Jeffrey Brudney. (2016) “A Framework for Using Crowdsourcing in Government.” International Journal of Public Administration in the Digital Age, 3(4): 57-75.

Abstract:

Crowdsourcing is a concept in which the crowd is used as a source of labor, idea generation, or problem identification. Crowdsourcing originated in the private sector; though with any good private sector practice it is increasingly being utilized in government. This paper provides an overview of the concept of crowdsourcing, gives examples of its use in the private and public sectors, and develops a framework for how governments can begin to strategize and think about crowdsourcing to solve problems when engaging with citizens. The authors’ framework is illustrated with a number of cases from current or past uses of crowdsourcing in government. They conclude with important considerations about how governments should strategize their crowdsourcing efforts.

 

Training Opportunity: Local Government Federal Credit Union FELLOWS

I know we typically only talk taxes and finances here on Death & Taxes, but I wanted to take the opportunity and let you all know about a dynamic and engaging leadership development opportunity through the School of Government.  The Local Government Leadership Credit Fellows program focuses on personal and organizational leadership skills and aims to develop the next generation of local government leaders.

Participants graduate with a deeper understanding of their individual leadership strengths, skills for improving their organizations, and a renewed passion for public service.

Image result for leading for results fellows

The program is designed for managers, assistant managers, department heads, supervisors, and the like.

Applications are due May 19 and the program’s tuition is covered by scholarships from the Local Government Federal Credit Union.

For more details and directions on how to apply please visit the course page: https://www.sog.unc.edu/resources/microsites/leading-results-lgfcu-fellows.

I hope you will consider applying!

 

 

 

Congratulations to our Tar Heels!

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Congratulations to our Tar Heels!  Why is this on Death & Taxes you ask?  Well…

Thank you to all of the Tar Heels who made their way to Franklin Street last night!

Thank you for coming to town and spending your sales tax dollars in Orange County!  Come back and snag a championship t-shirt!

So this is a great example of Orange County importing sales tax dollars (with over 9,000 in the Dean Dome and 55,000 on Franklin Street alone).  It also demonstrates some of the additional costs that come with enthusiastic non-residents!

“Chapel Hill officials already warned fans not to light bonfires on the street after the game, but by midnight fans already had three bonfires burning brightly in the intersection.  Also, by 12:05 a.m. Tuesday, young men had climbed street poles on at least three corners of the intersection and were standing on top of the walk/don’t walk signs…The streets were cleaned and reopened by 2:10 a.m. Tuesday.” (Article)

 

It all comes back to taxes…

 

 

Senate Bill 126: You down with this SB? Yeah, you know me… So you know that it is complicated.

There has been a great deal of interest in the distribution of local sales tax revenue in North Carolina in the past few years.  I will admit that as a scholar of local sales tax policy and effects, it has been an interesting time to be in the state (and made me much more popular!).  Not surprisingly, I have been having a lot of conversations with people across the state about SB 126, so I thought I would put some of my thoughts down on proverbial paper.

First things first, over the past few years there have been proposals and changes to the distribution of local sales taxes.  Some of you may recall there was even talk of making all distributions on a per capita basis rather than a mix of per capita and point-of-distribution (for more on local sales taxes please see this, this, this, and this).  While we have seen quite a bit of activity, with particular goals in mind, this tinkering with distribution is nothing new to North Carolina.  Our local sales taxes, or what are commonly referred to as “Articles”, have been adjusted numerous times by eliminating particular Articles, introducing new ones, earmarking revenue from them, or even changing the distribution of revenue (more of the local sales tax revenue was distributed on a per capita basis in the past than is now!).

So why are we tinkering with them now?  Well, I will not say what is motivating our elected officials, but it is likely the concern over the revenue raising capacity, or lack thereof, of our rural communities in the state.  As with the previous proposals in recent years, and what we have actually changed, SB 126 primarily benefits our rural jurisdictions.  The concern is that it benefits our rural jurisdictions at the expense of our urban ones.

What are we actually talking about?

Well we are talking about changing the existing adjustment factors for Article 40 which were in place as a hold harmless from previous changes to that sales tax base to a different set of adjustment factors.  While this may not sound dramatic, it is for some jurisdictions.  Let’s talk about it from a county-wide perspective (so some of this revenue is the county’s and some is the municipalities within the county).  The proposed adjustment factor is not a reinvention, but instead using the area development tiers which have three levels; 0.9, 1.0, and 1.1.  The current adjustment factors give extra revenue to the counties with the greatest capacity for generating revenue, because it was a hold harmless.  These tiers are essentially/frequently the opposite of that, so in most cases if you have a high adjustment factor under the current system you are looking at a substantial decrease and vice versa. For example, Columbus County would benefit tremendously with a change in their adjustment factor of 0.29.  They currently receive 81.3% of the Article 40 revenue generated in their county and under the new system they would receive 110%.  On the flipside, Dare County will have a change in their adjustment factor of 0.49.  They currently receive 149% of the revenue generated in their county by Article 40 and would instead receive 100%.  My home county of Orange would go from 115.3% to 90%.  These are, in many cases, substantial changes.

In some cases these percentages may seem more extreme than they are and in other cases, perhaps less.  So in Orange County, using the county-wide numbers for FY16 that 25% percent change is a loss in revenue of just under $2.4 million.  For Dare County, which would experience a loss of 49% it is just under $1.2 million.  The gain for Columbus County, with its additional 29% is just over $1.1 million.  In contrast there are counties like Tyrell which would receive, county-wide, about $30,000 more.  And then there are Wake and Durham, which would have reductions of 24% and 6% respectively, and lose $4.8 and $4.2 million each.  ***These numbers are low estimates because of remaining Article 40 funds that would like be distributed in the same manner.***

Are other states doing this?

No not really, though that does not mean much.  Local sales tax laws vary tremendously from state to state and the issue of fairness or equity with regards to them is nothing new.  There are only three other states that, like North Carolina, distribute a portion of the local sales tax revenue on a per capita basis and there are other states where other local taxes are shared amongst jurisdictions.  Perhaps the most famous is Texas’s “Robin Hood” program which was just found to be constitutional again.  Robin Hood is probably what you imagine, redistribution from the wealthy to the poor.  In this case via school districts and property tax revenue.  Of course, the most common way that states redistribute wealth between jurisdictions is at the state level with state revenues.

From the urban or tourism rich county perspective.

Many of you are frustrated.  You feel like you are being penalized from being a growing, if not thriving, area.  You understand that you do not (typically) just have bags of money laying around and that being more urban or having a robust tourism industry comes with costs too.  Some of you are acutely aware that you have made choices about zoning and development to build up your sales tax base and this feels like you are now being penalized for that choice because you would not receive the local sales tax revenue that you had been expecting.

Urban/Tourism Rich perspective:

  • That urban and tourism rich communities have a lot of non-residents visit or work there. While this generates additional local sales tax dollars (and other benefits) it also comes with additional costs for roads, police, etc.  These communities have people using their goods and services that do not pay for them in the traditional avenue (property taxes).  Thus, local sales taxes allow you to capture some revenue from these non-residents and offset the costs of having them commute or visit.
  • These communities often have actively recruited zoned, incentivized businesses that add to their local sales tax base based on the assumption that the law would not change and they would receive the status quo share of revenue.

From the rural county perspective.

Many of you are also frustrated, you commonly have high property tax rates, often high utility rates, and no more ability to raise local sales taxes.  You feel like you are maxed out on the capacity side, and yet you still do not have enough revenue.  You look to your urban neighbors and watch your citizens go shop and spend their money in those counties.

Rural perspective:

  • Tax leakage. This is the most powerful argument about why we can or even should tinker with local sales tax distributions.  Tax leakage occurs when people travel outside of their jurisdiction to purchase goods and thus their sales tax dollars go to a jurisdiction other than their home jurisdiction.  It happens for many reasons like working in other jurisdictions or preferring the shopping options in another jurisdiction (typically because there are better and more options available).  When this occurs it is typically rural dollars leaking into urban areas, so is arguably the rural areas subsidizing their urban neighbors.
  • It is not just about sales taxes it is about revenue raising capacity. Many rural jurisdictions are losing population and wealth is migrating out of those areas, leaving the jurisdiction in a hard spot to provide mandatory and important services.
    • On a side note about this, we know from the income tax literature that the people that are most able to move (migrate) are the wealthy. So what we expect and observe is that the people left behind are the ones who cannot move either because of their job or their wealth.  Of course there are people who choose to stay, but there are others with fewer and more difficult options.

  • While for local budget and finance officers it is easy to just see the different revenue raising capacities of different counties across the state, it is important to remember that our urban and tourism rich counties doing well and being successful is advantageous to all of us because of state level taxation and expenditures. This is not an “us versus them” issue though it may feel that way at times.

  • Saving grace. I will also note that the fact that we tax food in North Carolina helps all counties generate stable local sales tax receipts and additional revenue.  It especially helps rural counties.  Your citizens may do their shopping in other counties, but they likely do their grocery shopping in your county.  Also, like I said it is the most stable part of the sales tax base and the least sensitive to income levels.  Of course, there are concerns about the fairness of taxing food from the citizen perspective.

Like I said there are no answers to be found in this week’s blog post, just more questions and considerations.  What are you all thinking about with regard to SB 126?  What other factors should be on this list?

 

 

Mirror, Mirror on the wall, How much revenue will we generate this fall?

Yup, you guessed it, today’s blog post is on revenue forecasting!  My current blog series is about some of the non-legal finance issues that are out there and revenue forecasting, while required by law, is a really important one!  There are many people that are involved with revenue forecasting in local governments. While many outside of government may just assume that there is some accountant or budget wonk sitting in a back room who is somehow magically able (or has some very scientific formula) to predict how much money is going to be coming in next year, we know better.

There are many reasons to forecast revenues including planning for the future (are we going to have enough money coming to support our expenditures in five years) and to balance this year’s budget, but in North Carolina local governments are also required by law to forecast revenues.  Our forecasted revenues set the parameters on the budget, they define how much we can spend this year and may cause policy choices on both the expenditure and finance side (like setting the property tax rate).

This is why it is explicitly required in the Local Government Budget and Fiscal Control Act or simply the Fiscal Control Act.  The Fiscal Control Act requires that the budget is balanced and that the estimated revenue for the following year, used to create the balanced budget, be reasonable, reliable, and justifiable.  The question is, how do we do that?

In this blog post I am going to discuss forecasting methods broadly, if this is something you are more interested in and you want more details (and math!) please see my chapter in the Introduction to Local Government Finance textbook.

First, of all what do we need to successfully forecast our revenues? We need: data, institutional insight, and judgement.  We need data on the revenues we have collected in the past, policy changes, changes to our tax base, and whatever else we think may be important to know about past revenues and future revenues.  For example, beyond just property tax collections it is important to have data on property tax rate changes, reassessment cycles, etc.

Data is foundational, but without institutional insight it would be easy to misinterpret that data.  Institutional insight and knowledge helps a forecaster know what data needs to be collected, what effect changes have had on your community, what population or demographic changes may be occurring, whether firms are entering or exiting, etc.  Institutional insight provides the context for the data.  In a course I was teaching, I had the opportunity to talk with a budget officer from Fayetteville and we were talking about unexpected shocks to budgets.  She mentioned how the federal government shut down that occurred in 2013 really hit them hard because of the importance of Fort Bragg to their community.  They were affected by the shutdown in ways that most jurisdictions outside of metro D.C. were not.  If you had no context and were looking at their revenue receipts for that period and comparing them to other jurisdictions you would not only be confused but you would also let that shock affect your forecast in inappropriate ways.

Lastly, you have to always use your judgement.  You need to make sense of the numbers, look at the trends, and not rely exclusively on the numbers spit out of models.  I sometimes refer to this as the “gut check.”  You can use real numbers and reasonable forecasting methods and get unrealistic forecasts.  There are a lot of reasons this may happen and we are going to discuss some of them below!

There are two main categories of forecasting methods: qualitative and quantitative.

Qualitative forecasting relies on expert judgement.  The experts can be internal (like budget directors) or external (like local economists).  This is extremely common and can be very reliable when the expert understands the revenue source, the economy, and the community.  Can’t decide on just one expert? You can also use a panel of experts who bring different knowledge and perspectives to the process.  This often means internal experts as well as economists, business owners, bankers, etc.  There are many strengths to qualitative forecasting such as it is typically low cost, straightforward, and not too data intensive.  ***Note: This does not mean that our experts do not use data though!***  However, it has its share of weaknesses too.  You need to identify the correct experts, it is not as transparent a process, and it is hard to avoid forecaster bias.  Forecaster bias comes in many shapes and sizes but an example of it is that your expert remembers last time there was a downturn and it took your community 5 years to get back to previous sales tax collections, never mind that the previous economic downturn was the Great Recession and the next downturn will likely (hopefully!) be much less dramatic.  Or they know that this new box store coming in is going to generate tons of revenue, they just know it!

Quantitative judgement relies on data very heavily and there are numerous ways it can be accomplished.  For some tax sources, like property taxes, they can be forecasted through formulas because you have all the data you need (like tax base, rate, and collection rate) to calculate it.  Unfortunately this information is not available for the majority of taxes and fees.  A common method of quantitative forecasting is trend analysis, where the forecaster uses previous collections (and the changes from year to year) to estimate future collections.  There are many ways to forecast using trends including applying the average growth over the period to the previous year’s revenue.  The issue you here is that trend analysis is always backward looking and will lag behind changes to the economy.

A final way that is more common in larger jurisdictions is causal modeling where not just previous revenue is used, but also other economic drivers.  The advantage is that it can be forward looking and it incorporates the “why” of changing revenue collections.  It requires a lot of data though and for most local governments that data is not available, at least not for the most recent time periods.  And when it comes to data you should always remember GIGO: Garbage in, Garbage out.

So how do we choose? Well resources are the first hurdle.  What capacity do you have on staff (not just skill set but time)? Do you have the money to hire consultants?  Do you have the data?  The second consideration is to think about the revenue being forecasted, you should not be using the same (quantitative) forecasting technique for all your revenue sources.  ***See the book chapter for more on this.*** The third consideration is what works on previous data?  I suggest you forecast for previous years using a few different methods.  You know what the actual revenue collections are, so you will be able to identify which quantitative methods work best for different revenue sources.

Final thoughts on revenue forecasting.

  • All forecasts are wrong. The goal is to minimize how wrong they are.
  • Be cautious, but not too cautious. It is prudent to air on the conservative side of forecasting but too conservative and you are either taxing people too much or you are missing opportunities by not budgeting your revenues.
  • Expert judgement should always be incorporated, even when doing quantitative forecasting. The gut check of “does this make sense” is valuable.  I suggest you graph your estimate against the previous years to eyeball your forecast to help inform that gut check.

 

 

North Carolina Budget & Evaluation Officer Certification: FAQ

There is always room on the wall for a new shiny credential and on your resume for that matter.

The mission of the North Carolina Local Government Budget Association (NCLGBA) is to promote the budgeting profession through education, networking, and advocacy. As a strategy to promote the educational component of this mission, the NCLGBA created a certification program in July 2008 for members of the association to become Certified Budget & Evaluation Officers. Individuals seeking to become a Certified Budget & Evaluation Officer must possess a certain level of professional experience, must take four courses, and must pass three exams. I am writing this blog to respond to some of the most common questions associated with the certification, with the goal of promoting the certification program among budget and evaluation professionals.

Where can I obtain information on the certification program?

The website (www.nclgba.org) of the NCLGBA contains information on how to become certified, the benefits and values of certification, the upcoming courses and exams, and the list of certified budget & evaluation officers.

Do I have to be a member of the NCLGBA?

Yes. Individuals must be a member of the NCLGBA, including the association’s listserv.

How many years of professional experience do I need before seeking certification?

Individuals must have eight or more years of professional experience in local government budget and evaluation. This number decreases for individuals who possess more formal education. For example, individuals with an undergraduate degree need five or more years of professional experience and individuals with a master’s degree need three or more years of professional experience.

Do I have to complete my professional experience before taking the courses and respective exams?

No. In fact, individuals are encouraged to complete the courses and exams while obtaining the necessary years of experience.

How many courses do I have to take?

You must take four courses in the areas of budgeting, capital finance, performance measurement, and evaluation.

Where can I take the courses?

The School of Government offers courses in these areas on an annual basis. Another possibility is courses offered by the Government Finance Officers Association.

The 2017 courses are:

Budgeting in Local Government: 10/31-11/3 in Chapel Hill

Capital Financing in Local Government: 8/2-4 in Asheville

Performance Management in Local Government: 10/19 in Chapel Hill

Introduction to Program Evaluation for Budget and Management Analysts: 7/11-12 at NCLGBA’s Summer Conference

Practical Analytic Techniques for Local Government: 9/8 in Chapel Hill

While these are the dates for 2017 they are the approximate dates for these courses every year.

Do I have to take all four courses if I have taken related courses in pursuing my master’s degree?

Yes. Master-level courses cannot be substituted for continuing educational courses associated with the certification program.

How many exams must I take and what constitutes a pass?

You must take three exams in the areas of budgeting, capital finance, and performance measurement and must successfully answer 80 percent or more of the questions on each exam (there is not an exam related to the evaluation course).

Do I have to wait until I have taken all the courses before taking the exams?

No. In fact, you are encouraged to take the respective exam for each course as soon as you have taken the course to increase the probability of success.

How many times can I take an exam?

There is not limit on the number of times an individual may retake the exam.

Is a study guide available for the exams?

Yes. It can be found on the NCLGBA’s website.

What else should I do to prepare for my exams?

Of course you should look at the guide, but even better would be to go through your notes, readings, and slides from your coursework that you took to meet the requirements.

When are exams offered?

Exams are only offered twice a year in conjunctions with the summer and winter conferences of the NCLGBA.  This is the only opportunity to take the exams and they are only offered once per conference. There are no exceptions.

How do I become certified once I have completed the certification requirements?

You must complete the certification application form, which can be found on the NCLGBA’s website.

When will I receive my certification?

You will receive a letter from the president of the NCLGBA once your application has been approved. You will receive the actual certificate at the following conference of the NCLGBA!  Please note: Applications must be received before the planning meeting for the upcoming NCLGBA conference.  If it is received after the planning meeting you will be eligible to receive your certification at the following NCLGBA conference.

Let’s play “Who’s Paying That Tax?”

In my last blog I talked about the limitations that we all have on decision making and how we satisfice and make decisions based on incomplete information.  That is all true, but it does not mean that we should not strive to have a more robust understanding of the landscape we are working in.  To that end, I am going to be devoting some of my blogs to topics that are both interesting and important to understand for those working in government, especially those in budget and finance positions.  This week: tax incidence!

 

Hopefully I have not lost you already.  Tax incidence is just the fancy way of saying “who pays the tax” or “who bears the burden of the tax.”  As you may have already guessed who pays and who bears the burden may not be the same person (or party).  These are actually the two types of tax incidence: statutory incidence and economic incidence.

Statutory incidence is determined by who actually remits the tax to the government or who pays the tax.

Economic incidence is who bears the burden of the tax or in econ-speak whose resources (money mostly) are affected by the tax.

So let’s use a quick example to make this a bit clearer.  Let’s look at property taxes.  Imagine you have a small home in your community that is owned by the Smiths and occupied by renters, the Baldwins.

 

The Smiths are the ones who write a check to the county every year for property taxes—so they bear the statutory incidence of the property tax.  Does that mean that they bear the burden of the tax though?  Not necessarily.  Under the right conditions the Smiths may be able to charge a high enough rent that they are pushing the burden of the tax onto the Baldwins. In that case the Baldwins may be bearing (or a portion of) the economic incidence.

 

 

Hopefully that makes intuitive sense to you.  For those of you who like visual aids (or graphs!) let’s go back to the microeconomics you took in school.

  This is the standard graph used to teach economic incidence (which I will just be referring to as incidence from now on).  What you can see is that the consumer is now paying more (the difference between P and P1) for the good and the producer is now receiving less money for the good (the difference between P and the lower line).  AND there is less of the good being consumed.

The pink and green rectangles are the tax revenue.  The pink rectangle is the portion of the tax paid by consumers (or in the example of property taxes the renter) and the green rectangle is the portion of the tax paid by producers (or in the example of property taxes the owner).  You can see that the incidence is shared by both groups.  This is the expected outcome for most goods.

***Note: the white triangle to the left of the tax burden (between the Q1 and Q lines) is what is called in econ-speak dead weight loss.  This means that the tax has created a loss for both consumer and producers that the government does not get in revenue.  This is bad and we want to minimize this loss as much as possible.***

However, it should not be assumed that most taxes are split evenly.  This goes to the idea of elasticity.  I am not talking about the importance of elasticity in your sweats after the holiday season is over, but instead the elasticity of the supply and demand of goods.  In normal (non-econ) speak this just means how sensitive you are to changes in price of a good.  ***Inelastic means less sensitive to changes in price and elastic means more sensitive to changes in price.***  So if consumers are very sensitive to the change in the price of the good then more of the burden will be shifted to the producer.  If the consumer is less sensitive to the price (i.e., they will buy it at similar rates even when it costs more) then more of the incidence will be passed to them.

Here you can see that the demand line (D) is more up and down.  This means that no matter the price most consumers that were going to buy it before the tax was imposed are still going to buy it.  Under this inelastic demand (not sensitive to price) consumers will end up paying more of the tax burden, thus the pink box is bigger.  In the property tax example, this may mean that there are a lot of people looking to rent a home and not buy.  So the Smiths can charge a higher amount because of the insensitive or inelastic demand for rental properties, leaving the Baldwins with higher rent.  The opposite would be true if there were a lot of rental properties and not many prospective renters.  Then renters/consumers would be sensitive to changes in price and property owners would be less sensitive and bear the larger portion of the tax incidence.

This issue of elasticity is the heart of tax incidence.  The question of who is most sensitive to price is what determines the incidence.  It is natural to ask “what if both groups are sensitive to price” is a fair question.  The answer is that the amount consumed of that good will drop a lot, not much tax revenue will be generated, and there will be a lot of dead weight loss.  The burden will still be greater on the more sensitive one though.  The flip side is what if neither party is sensitive to price?  Well then there will not be much dead weight loss (yay!) and as always the less sensitive party will bear greater burden.

So what if we want to tax one group (let’s call them Team A) more than another group (Team B)?  Well, then you have to find a good that Team A is less sensitive to changes in price than Team B.  This may be different in different jurisdictions.  It is not as simple as shifting the statutory incidence because it does not matter which side of the market you tax, the burden will end up on the same party either way.

 

There are almost no universal rules about who bears the burden for normal (typical) goods.  There are exceptions of course.  The classic being cigarettes.  Cigarettes are addictive and therefore the demand for them by the consumer is not very sensitive to changes in price.  Therefore the cigarette tax falls largely, if not completely, on consumers.

 

 

Are you thinking, well my community is going to depend on property taxes and it does not really matter if the burden is being passed on to renters or staying with property owners (or businesses/their employees).  Fair enough, but if you are living in a community and you believe that the burden is being passed on to one group, you may be able to change other fees and taxes to not disproportionately affect the same group.  It is also always valuable to understand how your taxes affect your citizens and if they affect different populations unequally.

In brief: What do you need to know about tax incidence?

  • That the person who remits the tax may not be the person who bears the burden of the tax.
  • The person who is least sensitive to changes in price is going to bear a greater portion of the tax burden.
  • The side of the market that the tax is imposed on (e.g., producer versus consumer) does not affect who bears the burden.

 

 

 

Who you gonna call? A lawyer.

So I joke that when I get calls it is almost always someone wanting to see what the law says about the implementation of some revenue related issue.  To which I respond you need to talk to Chris, Kara, or Frayda.  The legality of government’s actions and the scope of the law are critical, but that is not what I am going to be able to help you with.

So what should you call me about?  Oh, the good stuff of course! In the next few blog posts I am going to discuss some of the non-legal issues surrounding financing government at the local level.  I will be blogging on issues like tax incidence (i.e., who is paying the tax), some of the perhaps unintended consequences of the policy, criteria that we should be using when we think about tax policy, revenue forecasting, and more!  Also, if there is something you would like to see discussed please let me know!

Before getting in to any one of those topics I want to open up a dialogue about why we need to talk about some these issues.  I think there is a temptation to be very pragmatic, which is not a bad thing, and to focus on what we have control over and what we can do.  I believe this largely explains why so many of the questions folks have are with regard to the legality of actions.  Budget officers, finance officers, managers, etc are tasked with difficult jobs—to find a way to provide the services their constituents want and need with limited resources.  Often this means that we have to get creative and think outside the box (so we ask “can we do this?”) and it always means saying no to some requests.  Unfortunately, there is no one right way to make those decisions once we move past the legality of them.  In 1940 V.O. Key asked his fellow economists how we can decide to spend money on activity A rather than activity B?  This question is still posed in every budgeting class in public administration courses.  We still do not have a scientific rational answer.  There are a lot of considerations, possibilities, and concerns that need to be weighed and they are often very value laden.

Can we think of all of them? Nope.  Not to immediately get too academic with you all, but I would say the budget process is an exercise in bounded rationality.

 

Bounded rationality is an economic theory that simply says that people are not able to make completely rational decisions.  This is because we are constrained by incomplete information, limited time, and frankly our brains cannot process all the relevant data, figure out all the alternatives, and calculate the potential outcomes of different decisions.

I can’t get no satisficing

Therefore we do something called satisficing.  Satisficing leads us (humans) to outcomes that are good enough.  “Good enough”, hmm.  That does not sound great, but it is actually not an inherently bad thing as long as people are considering some of the most relevant information and alternatives.

I suspect you can already see why this is potentially an important topic for budgeting.  We CANNOT consider every possible expenditure item, cut, consequence of our actions… So we live in a bounded rationality and satisficing world (like everyone else).

Imagine trying to create a budget for your community.  Imagine that you have a budget office of 2 or 3 people.  Now imagine trying to understand every EVERY single possible option for appropriations.  Completely eliminating certain areas, increasing property taxes and increasing expenditures, creating new programs, overhauling departments, etc.  I cannot even imagine all the ways you could do it!  Imagine how hard it would be to make the list of possibilities.  Now imagine how hard it would be to evaluate them all—including the ridiculous ones!  Think of the man power, the time, the resources that an exercise like that would require.  It is completely infeasible and foolish!  We do not want to live in that reality.  Bounded rationality and satisficing are our friends, the trick is to consider the right information, alternatives, and consequences.

**If you want to see an outcome that I was not considering, look at what you get when you google images of satisficing ridiculous.**

This series is going to highlight some of the information that is relevant and should be a part of the satisficing exercise.  That does not mean that you have control over some of these issues.  It does not mean that this knowledge will ultimately change what you choose or are able to do.  Many of these topics are out of your control, but by understanding them hopefully you will be able to foresee some problems, understand how these choices effect your community, and help you to discuss finances with elected officials, managers, departments, and citizens.

This series will be a mix of practical knowledge that impacts revenues and budgeting and hopefully thought provoking considerations involved in how we pay for government.  I am exciting about this series and hope that you will continue to pop on over to Death & Taxes over the next few months to see the next few installments.

LOST: Finally explained! Mysteries Solved! Secrets Revealed! Part 3

Previously on Death &Taxes, we learned that LOSTs and North Carolina’s local governments have a complicated relationship and that LOSTs favor some counties more than others.

There are many important characters in the story of LOSTs and North Carolina.  There are the earmarks, the revenue that goes to the municipalities, the revenue that is distributed on a per capita basis, and the tax on food.  I will let you decide which is Jack, Kate, Sawyer, and Locke.  However, I am going to just come out and say, the black smoke monster is the issue of equity across the counties. Continue reading

LOST: Finally explained! Mysteries Solved! Secrets Revealed! Part 2

Previously on Death &Taxes, we learned that LOSTs and North Carolina’s local governments are important to each other, but dare I say it, have a complicated relationship.

LOSTs are an important source of revenue and some of that revenue is earmarked, but that is not why they have been receiving so much attention.  The reason they have suddenly been a part of the tax reform discussion is the perceived inequity of the revenue raising capacity of different counties across the state. Continue reading

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